Number crunching: FUTURE BAGELERS division

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Number crunching: FUTURE BAGELERS division

Post by Awww_Ski_Ski_Ski_Ski on Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:46 pm

Since the numbers I put up yesterday about the FUTURE CHAMPS division were pretty well received, here are some numbers about the FUTURE BAGELERS division.



* Okay let's start by settling something: Is one division better than the other? I now have point totals for every team for every week for both divisions, and when you add it all up, well... it turns out we're pretty much even. The FUTURE CHAMPS division has scored a total of 10,237 points collectively throughout the season, while the FUTURE BAGELERS have scored a total of 10,189.

* That's a difference of...48, or about one half of one percent.

* If you look at things a different way, and were to imagine our combined points total for all teams each week as a match between the divisions, with the higher combined score winning, we'd still be close: 7 wins for the FUTURE CHAMPS and 5 wins for the FUTURE BAGELERS. (And one of the Future Champs' wins, week 12, is by literally one point.)

...okay, with that settled, let's look at the FUTURE BAGELERS division specifically.


* Unlike in our division, the standings in the Future Bagelers division are not really at all in sync with points scored. Yes, Kuhn and Friends leads by a mile with 1,447 points (150 points ahead of the second-place team), but after that things get murky.

* The worst team, measured by total points scored, is actually NOT the Sexual Tyrannosaurs, but Fanooly Special, with an abysmal 1,166 points through 12 weeks. (Not quite as bad as Nick or Paul in our league, but still quite bad.) The Tyrannosaurs are not great either, though, landing in second-to-last with 1,185.

* After Kuhn and Friends, the top of the division does not really correlate with points scored. Believe it or not, the second-most points scored goes to The Crainman... currently sitting at 6th place in the division and fighting desperately for a playoff spot this week.

* Fleischman's Butta and the Taylor Hams are at 3rd and 4th respectively in points scored and 4th and 2nd respectively in the standings, so that's not too far off. But the Spankbank Divas, who are sitting at 3rd overall in the standings, are actually 6th in points scored with 1,209 (putting them behind My Little Ponies' 1,243 as well). To me it seems like Tom got very lucky with matchups this year, and Jon Eric got reallllly unlucky.


As with the FUTURE CHAMPS division, I looked at the high and low score of every team to see the range of scores they've gotten this season. However, unlike those numbers--which showed that the most consistent teams were also the worst teams--these numbers tell a different story.

* The most consistent team by a wide margin is... the Taylor Hams. They've scored within a narrow 47-point range across 12 weeks this season, with a high of 127 and a low of 80. That strategy has served the Hams well, as they're currently sitting pretty in second place, with a playoff spot clinched.

* The most unpredictable team has been, unsurprisingly, The Crainman... which has waffled between crazy high scoring weeks (a high of 177) and crazy low scoring weeks (a low of 62) for a range of 115 points among his scores over the 12 weeks. That might help explain why they are so high in points scored but have still lost so many games.

* That said, it's worth noting that the second most inconsistent team is Kuhn and Friends, with a 103 point range between their highest and lowest scores. But that's mostly based on an outlier of 62 in week 11... other than that KaF have scored no lower than 92 points and as high as 165.


As with the FUTURE CHAMPS division, I also looked at average score for weeks 1-6 versus average score for weeks 7-12 to see who has improved or declined in the second half of the season. Here's what I found:

* The biggest change of any team came from the My Little Ponies, with a decline of 22% from the first half to the second half. Not sure what caused them to fall out of the saddle so hard, but things are not looking great for MLP as they fight for a playoff spot this week.

* The largest improvement came from Fleischman's Butta, with a jump of 17% from the first half to the second half. Keep in mind that in the FUTURE CHAMPS division, the greatest improvement of any team was just 8%, so this is a pretty big jump for the Buttas.

* The Spankbank Divas also deserve a mention for their 13% improvement from the first half to the second half, which probably at least partially explains how they're sitting at 3rd place in the league despite having the 6th-most points scored across the season.

* The remaining teams haven't changed that much from the first half to the second. The Taylor Hams and The Crainman fell by 5%; Fanooly Special and the Sexual Tyrannosaurs improved by 6%, and Kuhn and Friends fell by a modest 3%.

* For context, unlike the FUTURE CHAMPS division, in which all teams combined declined 2% from the first to the second half, the FUTURE BAGELERS were shockingly consistent, scoring a joint average of 106 weekly in both the first and the second half.

That's all for now.


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